Data Module · Security & Conflict
The Sahel War
JNIM, ISSP & the Collapse of the Center · 2012–Present
10,400+
Dead in Sahel (2024)
51%
Of global terrorism deaths
77,000+
Dead since 2019 (AFP/ACLED)
60%
Of Burkina Faso outside state control
130
Road attacks near Bamako (2025) — 10× since 2021
001 · Actor Database
Three forces. One war zone. Zero winners.
JNIM
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin
Personnel
~5,000+
Leader
Iyad ag Ghali
Formed
2017 (merger of AQIM, Ansar Dine, Katiba Macina, al-Murabitun)
Civilian targeting
71% of political violence events target civilians (ACLED, Mali)
Territory
Central/northern Mali, northern/western Burkina Faso, southwestern Niger, expanding into Benin & Togo
Revenue
Taxation, livestock raids, road tolls, fuel blockades, kidnapping for ransom
Status (2025)
Expanding — encircling Bamako, blockading Mali's western supply corridor, consolidating in Benin
ISSP
Islamic State Sahel Province
Personnel
1,000–3,000
Leader
Undisclosed (post-Abu Huzeifa, killed Apr 2024)
Formed
2015 as ISGS → provincial status Mar 2022
Civilian targeting
52% targeting rate in CAR-style independent operations (ACLED); indiscriminate massacres
Territory
Tri-border (Mali-Burkina-Niger Liptako-Gourma), expanding into Niger-Nigeria border (Sokoto, Kebbi)
Revenue
Territorial taxation, gold mining, cross-border smuggling
Status (2025)
Restructuring — new military zones, southward expansion via Lakurawa subgroup into Nigeria
Wagner / Africa Corps
Russian paramilitary (rebranded post-Prigozhin)
Personnel
~1,500 in Mali + expanding
Leader
Russian MoD chain of command
Formed
Mali: Dec 2021. Burkina Faso: Jan 2024. Niger: Apr 2024.
Civilian targeting
Mali: 76% of civilian fatalities linked to armed forces + Russian allies (2024)
Territory
Deployed at invitation of AES junta governments
Revenue
Gold, minerals, cash payments ($200M+ from Mali alone)
Status (2025)
Wagner withdrew Jun 2025 → Africa Corps replaced. Same personnel, same violence.
002 · Fatality Escalation
Tripled since 2021
Every year since Wagner arrived has been deadlier than the last. The juntas invited Russia to fight terrorism. The terrorism tripled.
| Year | Sahel fatalities | Burkina Faso share | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ~4,000 | — | Sahel becomes deadliest theater for first time |
| 2020 | ~4,200 | — | Mali coup #1 |
| 2021 | ~3,700 | ~2,400 | Mali coup #2. Wagner arrives Dec. |
| 2022 | ~5,600 | ~3,600 | Moura massacre. Two Burkina coups. France forced out. |
| 2023 | ~7,600 | ~5,200+ | MINUSMA ends. Niger coup. AES formed. Record year. |
| 2024 | ~10,400–11,200 | ~5,000+ | Tripled since 2021. 51% of global terrorism deaths. Barsalogho (400 killed). |
| 2025 (partial) | On pace to exceed 2024 | — | 400+ attacks / 2,900 dead (Apr–Jul alone). JNIM blockading Bamako. |
Sources: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, ACLED, AFP. Sahel fatality data likely underreported due to junta media suppression post-coups.
003 · Territorial Control
The states are shrinking
| Country | Territory outside state control | Displaced | Siege conditions | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkina Faso | ~60% | ~3 million | 75+ towns under militant blockade | Worst since conflict began. JNIM could capture Djibo if it chose (ACLED). |
| Mali | ~50% | ~400,000+ | Kayes and Nioro blockaded (Sep 2025) | Southern Mali falling — 30%+ increase in events in all 3 southern regions. |
| Niger | Expanding | ~350,000+ | Southwestern border with Nigeria compromised | ISSP/Lakurawa operationalizing rear bases in Nigeria. |
| Benin | Northern border zone | Growing | W National Park as JNIM staging ground | 54 soldiers killed in single attack (Apr 2025). Deadliest ever. |
| Togo | Northern fringe | Emerging | — | 52 deaths in 2024 (vs 12 in 2023). JNIM claimed 4 attacks, 41 fatalities. |
004 · The Quasi-State
JNIM doesn't just fight. It governs.
Unlike ISIS affiliates that rely on mass violence, JNIM builds parallel governance structures — taxation, courts, market control, blockades. New Lines Institute analysis of ACLED data (2022–2024) shows JNIM's civilian engagement is "surprisingly non-lethal" compared to its military capabilities. It doesn't need to kill everyone. It needs to replace the state.
Taxation
Zakat collection on livestock, agriculture, and commerce. Road tolls on all major transit routes.
Courts
Sharia courts resolving disputes. Civilians report preferring JNIM adjudication over corrupt state courts in some areas.
Blockades
Sep 2025: JNIM declared blockade on Kayes and Nioro. Banned fuel imports from Senegal, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania. National fuel stocks depleted.
Market control
Roads and markets are primary contact points (ACLED). JNIM sells stolen livestock at markets it controls.
Abduct and release
84% of all abduct-and-release incidents in West Africa attributed to JNIM (2022–2024). Used to demonstrate power, extract compliance.
Propaganda
Media campaigns in local languages. Claimed operations in Benin, Niger, Togo. Recruitment through local grievance.
005 · Incident Log
2022 — 2025
| Date | Actor | Location | Dead | Type | Detail | Connected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27–31, 2022 | Wagner + FAMa | Moura, Mopti (Mali) | 500+ | massacre | ~100 Wagner fighters + Malian army. 3,000 rounded up at market. Executed by shooting in back. 58 women/girls raped. OHCHR confirmed. | → Blood Gold |
| Apr 2022 | Wagner | Gossi (Mali) | ~12 | false-flag | Wagner buried bodies near base, produced footage blaming French. France released satellite imagery exposing false flag. | → Blood Gold |
| Aug 24, 2024 | JNIM | Barsalogho (Burkina Faso) | ~400 | massacre | Gunmen attacked soldiers and civilians digging defensive trenches. Largest massacre in Burkina Faso history. | — |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Militants | Nouna (Burkina Faso) | 26+ | massacre | Attack on a church. One day after Barsalogho. | — |
| Sep 17, 2024 | JNIM | Bamako (Mali) | Hundreds (claimed) | urban | Coordinated attack on military sites in the capital. First significant JNIM urban assault. Malian TV acknowledged "some" deaths. | — |
| Jul 25–27, 2024 | Tuareg vs Wagner | Tinzaouaten (Mali) | 20–80 Wagner | military | CSP-DPA rebels ambush Wagner-Malian convoy. Wagner's worst military loss in Mali. Ukraine claimed assistance. | → Blood Gold |
| Jan 2025 | JNIM | Northern Benin | 28 soldiers | expansion | Attacks near Burkina/Niger border. Benin increasingly drawn into the Sahel conflict zone. | — |
| Apr 17, 2025 | JNIM | W National Park (Benin) | 54 soldiers | expansion | Deadliest single jihadist attack in Benin's history. | — |
| Sep–Nov 2025 | JNIM | Kayes region (Mali) | Multiple | siege | Fuel blockade. Hit tanker convoys from the west. More strikes in 2025 than prior 5 years combined. National fuel stocks depleted. Mass evacuations. | → Atlantic Spine |
| Jun–Jul 2025 | ISSP vs JNIM | Burkina Faso Sahel region | 21+ militants | inter-group | Deadliest spate of inter-jihadi clashes since 2022. 8 clashes in 5 weeks. More clashes through Nov 2025 than all of 2024. | — |
| 2025 (ongoing) | Wagner/Africa Corps + FAMa | Central/Northern Mali | Dozens | massacre | Ongoing summary executions of ethnic Fulani. 12+ executions, 81 disappearances, 30 homes burned documented (HRW Jul 2025). Forbidden Stories: systematic torture in former UN camps. | → Blood Gold |
006 · The Vacuum
Everyone left. The territory filled.
2013
Operation Serval (France) launches in Mali
2013
MINUSMA (UN) deployed — 13,000 peacekeepers
2014
Serval becomes Barkhane — 5,100 French troops across 5 countries
2017
G5 Sahel Joint Force created
2020
Mali coup #1 — Col. Goïta overthrows elected president
2021
Mali coup #2. Wagner Group arrives (Dec). EU sanctions follow.
2022
France forced out of Mali. Barkhane withdraws entirely. Two Burkina Faso coups.
2023
MINUSMA ends (Jun). Niger coup (Jul). AES alliance formed (Sep). France expelled from Niger & Burkina.
2024
AES withdraws from ECOWAS. US forces leave Niger (Sep). Africa Corps replaces Wagner.
2025
Wagner withdraws from Mali (Jun) → Africa Corps replaces. AES creates 5,000-soldier joint force. JNIM and ISSP control more territory than ever.
007 · Connected Intelligence
The pattern.
Wagner/Africa Corps operates in the same countries where JNIM and ISSP are expanding. In Mali, junta + Russian forces killed more civilians (76% of fatalities) than jihadists in 2024. ACLED: security force violence against civilians increased 76% between 2022–2024. Violence drives recruitment. The counterterrorism operation became the recruitment operation.
The Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline passes through JNIM territory. The Trans-Saharan Pipeline crosses Niger — an AES junta state. JNIM's fuel blockade of Kayes (Sep 2025) demonstrated that a jihadi group can cut an entire country's energy supply. Pipeline infrastructure in the Sahel is a target, not just a corridor.
ISSP's Lakurawa subgroup is expanding from Niger into Nigeria's Sokoto and Kebbi states — meeting ISWAP and Boko Haram from the other direction. The Sahel war and the Lake Chad war are merging into a single interconnected conflict zone.
Sources & Attribution
Data compilation, cartography, and analysis: Dancing with Lions
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