Data Module · Security & Conflict
The Lake of Fire
Boko Haram, ISWAP & the Lake Chad Basin · 2002–Present
50,000+
Dead since 2009
3M+
Displaced
~3,600
Fatalities (2024)
276
Chibok girls kidnapped (91 still missing)
23 years
Africa's longest jihadi insurgency
001 · Actor Database
Two factions of the same war. One original. One reborn.
Boko Haram (JAS)
Jama'at Ahl al-Sunna lid-Da'wa wal-Jihad — "Western education is forbidden"
Founded
2002 (insurgency: 2009)
Personnel
1,000–2,000 (remnant factions)
Founder
Mohammed Yusuf (killed in custody, Jul 2009)
Current leader
Factional — Shekau killed May 2021 (suicide vest during ISWAP assault)
Territory
Lake Chad islands, Mandara Mountains (Nigeria-Cameroon border)
Revenue
Extortion, kidnapping, border trade, raiding
Status (2025)
Resurgent — 6 large-scale attacks (20+ dead each) in 2025 vs 1 in 2024. 100 massacred Feb 2025. 60 in Sep 2025.
ISWAP
Islamic State West Africa Province — Official ISIS affiliate in Lake Chad Basin
Founded
2016 (insurgency: 2016)
Personnel
2,000–3,000
Founder
Abu Musab al-Barnawi (split from Shekau over civilian targeting)
Current leader
Post-split leadership council
Territory
Northeastern Nigeria (Borno, Yobe), parts of Niger (Diffa)
Revenue
Territorial taxes, fish trade monopoly, farming taxation, extortion
Status (2025)
Active — adopting drones and IEDs (likely from global ISIS network). Absorbing foreign fighters. 250+ killed in Borno (Sep 2025 alone).
Ansaru
Ansaru al-Musulmina fi Bilad al-Sudan — "Vanguard for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa"
Founded
2012 (insurgency: 2012)
Personnel
Unknown (small but recruiting)
Founder
Boko Haram defectors opposed to Shekau's mass civilian killings
Current leader
Undisclosed
Territory
Northwestern Nigeria
Revenue
Unknown
Status (2025)
Dormant since 2013 — but reports of JAS/ISWAP fighters defecting to Ansaru under military pressure. Potential re-emergence.
002 · The Split
Same origin. Different wars.
ISIS rejected Shekau in 2016 for being too brutal — even by ISIS standards. The split created two groups that now fight each other as much as they fight the state. In November 2025, a turf war between them killed ~200.
| Dimension | Boko Haram (JAS) | ISWAP |
|---|---|---|
| Origin | Original Boko Haram under Shekau (post-2009) | Defected under al-Barnawi when ISIS rejected Shekau (2016) |
| Civilian approach | Indiscriminate. Mass killings of Muslims and Christians. Child suicide bombers. Deliberate atrocities. | More selective. Avoids mass Muslim civilian killings. Provides governance services (taxation, courts, fishing rights). |
| Revenue | Extortion, kidnapping, raiding. Parasitic model. | Territorial taxation, fish trade monopoly, farming levies. State-like model. |
| Territory | Lake Chad islands, Mandara Mountains. Remote enclaves. | Northeastern Nigeria (Borno, Yobe). Controls towns, roads, bases. |
| Technology | Conventional weapons, suicide vests | Adopting drones and IEDs (2024+). Likely tech transfer from global ISIS network. |
| Current trajectory | Resurgent — escalating border massacres. 6 large-scale attacks in 2025 vs 1 in 2024. | Consolidating — absorbing foreign fighters, attacking military bases, expanding territorial control. |
003 · The Numbers
Twenty-three years of data
| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total dead (insurgency) | 50,000+ | 2009–2025 | CFR / ACLED / various |
| Total displaced | 3+ million | Ongoing | UNHCR / IOM |
| Lake Chad Basin fatalities (2024) | ~3,600 | 2024 | Africa Center for Strategic Studies |
| Nigeria terrorism ranking | 6th globally | 2025 | Global Terrorism Index 2025 |
| Boko Haram large-scale attacks (2025) | 6 (20+ dead each) | Jan–Nov 2025 | Critical Threats / ACLED |
| Same metric (2024) | 1 | 2024 | Critical Threats |
| ISWAP estimated fighters | 2,000–3,000 | 2025 | ICT / Africa Center |
| Chibok girls still missing | ~91 of 276 | As of 2025 | Various |
| Borno attacks (Sep 2025) | 250+ dead, 20+ ambush attempts | Sep 2025 | Military Africa / ACLED |
| ISWAP-Boko Haram turf war (Nov 2025) | ~200 dead | Nov 2025 | Military Africa |
004 · Incident Log
2014 — 2025
| Date | Actor | Location | Dead/Impact | Type | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2014 | Boko Haram | Chibok, Borno (Nigeria) | 276 kidnapped | kidnapping | 276 schoolgirls abducted from Government Secondary School. #BringBackOurGirls. ~91 still missing as of 2025. |
| Jan 3–7, 2015 | Boko Haram | Baga, Borno (Nigeria) | 150–2,000 | massacre | Mass killing in Baga and surrounding towns. Estimates vary wildly. Satellite imagery showed widespread destruction. Among the deadliest single events. |
| Feb 19, 2018 | Boko Haram | Dapchi, Yobe (Nigeria) | 110 kidnapped | kidnapping | 110 schoolgirls abducted. Most released after negotiations. Leah Sharibu (Christian, refused to convert) still held. |
| Mar 23, 2020 | Boko Haram | Boma, Chad | 92 soldiers | military | Deadliest ever attack on Chadian military. 24 vehicles destroyed. Chad launched Operation Bohoma Anger in response. |
| May 2021 | ISWAP | Sambisa Forest (Nigeria) | Shekau + unknown | turning-point | ISWAP assaults last Boko Haram stronghold. Shekau detonates suicide vest. Thousands of JAS fighters surrender or defect to ISWAP. |
| Feb 2025 | Boko Haram | Cameroon-Nigeria border | 100 | massacre | Boko Haram massacred civilians accused of spying for ISWAP. Retaliatory mass killing. |
| Sep 2025 | Boko Haram | Dar Jamal (border) | 60 | massacre | Civilians killed for alleged collaboration with Nigerian military. |
| Sep 2025 | ISWAP | Borno State (Nigeria) | 250+ | offensive | Month of ambushes and raids. 20+ separate attack attempts. Worst month in Borno in recent memory. |
| Nov 2025 | ISWAP vs Boko Haram | NE Nigeria | ~200 | inter-group | Factional turf war. Both groups fighting for territorial dominance in Lake Chad Basin. |
005 · Timeline
2002 — 2025
2002
Mohammed Yusuf founds Boko Haram in Maiduguri, Borno State. Religious movement opposing Western influence.
2009
Armed uprising in Bauchi. Security forces kill 800+. Yusuf killed in police custody. Boko Haram radicalizes.
2010
Abubakar Shekau claims leadership. Begins campaign of assassinations and bombings.
2011
UN headquarters Abuja bombed (23 killed). First major international target.
2012
Kano coordinated attacks: 185+ killed in one day. Ansaru splits from Boko Haram over civilian killings.
2013
State of emergency declared in Borno, Yobe, Adamawa. Boko Haram fighters join AQIM in Mali.
2014
Chibok kidnapping: 276 schoolgirls abducted (Apr). Peak territorial control. World's deadliest terrorist group.
2015
Regional coalition offensive displaces Boko Haram from strongholds. Pledges allegiance to ISIS → becomes ISWAP (Mar).
2016
ISIS rejects Shekau. Appoints al-Barnawi. Split: ISWAP (ISIS-aligned) vs JAS (Shekau loyalists).
2018
Dapchi kidnapping: 110 schoolgirls abducted (Feb). One refused to convert — Leah Sharibu, still captive.
2020
Chad offensive: Boko Haram kills 92 soldiers in single attack (Mar). Chad claims 1,000 militants killed in response.
2021
ISWAP assaults Sambisa Forest. Shekau detonates suicide vest rather than be captured (May). Thousands of JAS fighters surrender or defect.
2022–23
JAS remnants consolidate in Lake Chad islands and Mandara Mountains. ISWAP strengthens territorial control in Borno.
2024
Boko Haram's first suicide attack since 2020. ISWAP adopts drones. Lake Chad Basin fatalities: ~3,600.
2025
Boko Haram escalation: 100 massacred (Feb), 60 killed (Sep) on Cameroon border. ISWAP: 250+ dead in Borno (Sep). Niger exits MNJTF. Turf war kills ~200 (Nov).
006 · Connected Intelligence
The pattern.
The Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline begins in Lagos — Nigeria's economic heart. But northeastern Nigeria, where ISWAP operates, sits on the pipeline's critical early corridor. ISWAP's expansion into Sokoto and Kebbi states (via ISSP's Lakurawa) brings the insurgency closer to Nigeria's northwest — where the pipeline route runs. 23 years of Boko Haram have not been contained. They've migrated.
ISSP's Lakurawa subgroup is expanding from Niger into Nigeria's Sokoto and Kebbi — meeting ISWAP from the east. The Sahel war and the Lake Chad war are merging into a single interconnected conflict zone. Previously distinct conflicts are becoming one theater. ACLED: "Previously distinct conflicts in the Sahel and coastal West Africa are merging."
Wagner/Africa Corps deployed to Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger — the same countries where ISSP operates and where Lakurawa is expanding into Nigeria. The junta security model (invite Russia, expel the West) is failing across the entire region. Niger exited the MNJTF in March 2025, further weakening Lake Chad Basin coordination.
Sources & Attribution
Data compilation, cartography, and analysis: Dancing with Lions
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