The Energy
Paradox

The numbers define the paradox. Africa holds 60% of the world’s best solar resources. It receives more annual sunshine than any continent. It has untapped hydropower that dwarfs what has been built, wind corridors along its coasts and mountains that remain largely unexploited, and geothermal reserves in the East African Rift that make Kenya the seventh-largest geothermal producer on Earth. And yet 600 million Africans — nearly half the continent’s population — have no electricity. The 48 countries of sub-Saharan Africa collectively generate about as much power as Spain. Africa accounts for 80% of the global electricity access gap.

This is not a resource problem. Africa could power itself many times over. It is a financing problem, a grid problem, and a governance problem. Only 2-3% of global renewable energy investment over the past two decades went to Africa. Only 3.3% of the continent’s total energy production in 2023 came from renewables. Morocco imports 90% of its energy — making Noor Ouarzazate not just a climate project but an energy security imperative. By 2050, thirty-one African countries will import more than half their energy demand unless domestic renewables scale dramatically.

The flagship projects prove what is possible. Morocco’s Noor Ouarzazate complex — 580 MW of concentrated solar power with thermal storage — supplies electricity to over two million people. Egypt’s Benban is one of the world’s largest solar parks. Ethiopia’s GERD, self-funded because no external financier would touch the Nile politics, is the third-largest hydroelectric facility globally. Kenya generates 45% of its electricity from geothermal, making it 90% renewable overall. These are not experiments. They are proven infrastructure operating at scale.

But the acceleration is not happening fast enough. Africa added 5.4 GW of renewable capacity in 2023 — nearly four times the rate of 2018. Investment hit a record $15 billion. Solar added 4.5 GW in 2025, up 54%. These are real numbers, real momentum. But the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative targets 300 GW by 2030. Current installed capacity is 71 GW. The gap between trajectory and target is enormous, and the population is growing faster than the connections.

The most interesting development is the distributed energy revolution happening outside the grid entirely. Over 70 million people now use solar home systems and mini-grids. Africa is 60% of the world’s off-grid solar market. In South Africa, the catastrophic load shedding of 2022-23 — 332 days of power cuts in 2023 alone — triggered a private solar boom that took embedded generation from 1.2 GW to 6.1 GW in three years. In Nigeria, a $60 solar panel that displaces diesel pays for itself in six months. Cumulative solar panel imports from China to Africa exceeded 52 GW by September 2025. The economics have shifted. Solar is now the cheapest electricity source in most African contexts, undercutting diesel and often grid tariffs.

The parallel to the tech leapfrog is exact. Just as Africa skipped landlines because mobile towers were cheaper and faster, it may skip centralised grids because distributed solar is cheaper and faster. Between 2020 and 2022, more than half of new electricity connections in sub-Saharan Africa came from off-grid systems. The IEA’s pathway to universal access by 2035 allocates roughly equal investment to grid expansion ($7B/year), mini-grids ($5B/year), and solar home systems ($3B/year). The grid does not disappear. But it is no longer the only path — and for the 80% of the unelectrified who live in rural areas, it may not be the primary one.

Morocco offers a model of what policy commitment looks like. The kingdom targets 52% renewable energy by 2030, has built one of the world’s largest solar complexes, is developing green hydrogen for European export, and has positioned its energy infrastructure as an economic development tool rather than just a utility function. The Noor Ouarzazate complex does not just generate electricity — it generates geopolitical leverage, export revenue, and investor confidence. Energy infrastructure, like port infrastructure, is a tool for national positioning. Africa’s energy transition is not just about lights. It is about whether the continent can convert its resource abundance into economic power, or whether it will remain — as the UN Economic Commission for Africa put it — a paradox of potential and neglect.