Module 150 · Conservation Economics
The Conservation
Playbook
Five mechanisms. Ten models. Four success stories. Six failure patterns. Every working conservation programme in Africa shares the same structural DNA. Every failure is missing the same pieces. This is the field guide to what actually works — and why it has not been replicated.
0
mechanisms that work
0
models scored
0k+
animals recovered (gorongosa)
0
rhino being rewilded
0.0%
of namibia conserved
001 · The Field
Where conservation is working. Where it is not. And why.
Green markers: models producing measurable wildlife recovery. Amber: community-led systems with proven results. Blue: African Parks franchise operations. Red: programmes that failed or are under critical threat. Each marker represents a different philosophy of how humans and wildlife can coexist — or cannot.
002 · The Five Architectures
Not one model. Five. Each built for different terrain.
The debate over “what works” in African conservation fails because it assumes a single answer. There are five distinct architectures, each optimised for different conditions. Namibia’s conservancy model requires democratic tradition and tourism markets. Rwanda’s permit model requires charismatic megafauna and political stability. Gorongosa’s philanthropic model requires a Greg Carr. The question is not which is best. The question is which fits the landscape, the people, and the political economy.
Community Conservancy
Archetype: NamibiaGive wildlife to communities. Legal rights. Democratic governance. Revenue stays local.
Strengths
Scale (20% of Namibia). Self-sustaining where tourism exists. Resilient governance.
Weaknesses
Requires tourism market. Drought-vulnerable. Not all conservancies profitable.
Best for: Countries with strong land rights, tourism potential, democratic tradition.
High-Value Permits
Archetype: Rwanda gorillasFew visitors, high price, maximum revenue per encounter. Quality over quantity.
Strengths
Extraordinary per-species revenue. Clear conservation incentive. Global brand.
Weaknesses
Single-species risk. Political stability required. Excludes local visitors.
Best for: Charismatic megafauna in small, manageable habitats.
Cultural Guardians
Archetype: Lion GuardiansRecruit the threat. People who kill wildlife are best placed to protect it. Redirect culture, don't replace it.
Strengths
Transforms the root cause. Cost-effective ($1,200/guardian/year). Cultural buy-in.
Weaknesses
Donor-dependent salaries. Doesn't scale without external funding. Species-specific.
Best for: Human-wildlife conflict zones with strong pastoral/warrior cultures.
Philanthropic PPP
Archetype: GorongosaSingle committed funder + government partnership. Long-term (20-40 year) investment. Total rebuild.
Strengths
10× wildlife recovery. Jobs, schools, clinics integrated. Coffee/agriculture diversification.
Weaknesses
Replicability — how many Greg Carrs exist? $200M commitment. Insurgency risk.
Best for: Post-conflict ecosystems with intact habitat but depleted wildlife.
Management Franchise
Archetype: African ParksNGO takes long-term management mandate from government. Centralised expertise deployed to weak-state parks.
Strengths
23 parks, 13 countries, 20M hectares. Eliminates poaching in managed areas. 2,000 rhino rewilding.
Weaknesses
Government can revoke mandate. Top-down. Communities are beneficiaries, not owners.
Best for: Failed state parks. Countries with low institutional capacity but political will.
003 · The Scorecard
Five mechanisms. Ten models. Score them honestly.
Every successful conservation programme uses at least two of five mechanisms. Every failure uses zero or one. The mechanisms are not ideological. They are structural. They do not require agreement about values. They require agreement about architecture. Community ownership. Direct economic benefit. Professional management. Cultural integration. Governance. Mix at least two strongly and the wildlife recovers. Miss all five and you get South Africa’s captive lion industry: 10,000 lions, zero conservation value.
M1
Community ownership
M2
Direct economic benefit
M3
Professional management
M4
Cultural integration
M5
Governance structure
Rwanda · Mountain gorilla
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: 254→1,063. Only great ape increasing.
Risk: Single-species dependency. Virunga instability.
Namibia · Elephant, desert lion, black rhino
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: Elephants 7k→26k. 45.6% of country protected.
Risk: Drought vulnerability. Tourism-dependent revenue.
Kenya/Tanzania · Lion
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: Lion killing -99%. Population tripled in Amboseli.
Risk: Donor-dependent. $100/month salaries from charity.
Mozambique · Lion, elephant, buffalo, wild dog
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: 10,000→110,000+ animals. 10× recovery.
Risk: Single philanthropist ($100M+ from Carr). Insurgency.
13 countries · White rhino, multiple
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: 23 parks, 20M hectares. 2,000 rhino rewilding.
Risk: Franchise model. Government partnerships can end.
Kenya · Elephant, Grevy's zebra
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: 230 conservancies. 16% of Kenya. 83% of Mara wildlife.
Risk: Uneven quality. Some conservancies tokenistic.
Zimbabwe · Elephant
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: Pioneer community model (1989). Revenue grew initially.
Risk: District councils captured revenue. Communities got ~15%.
Botswana · Elephant (~130k)
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: Largest elephant population. Ban 2014, reversed 2019.
Risk: Community opposition to ban. Human-elephant conflict rose.
Pan-African · Lion, elephant
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: 1.8% of tourism revenue. 3% reaches communities.
Risk: Structural failure. Removes prime breeders. Corrupt quotas.
South Africa · Lion (10-12k captive)
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Result: Zero conservation value. Canned hunting. Bone trade.
Risk: Total failure on every dimension.
Scores: 0 = absent, 1 = weak, 2 = moderate, 3 = strong. Assessment by Dancing with Lions based on published evaluations, NACSO, IUCN, AWF, Maliasili, and programme reports. © Dancing with Lions
004 · The Recoveries
They said it was impossible. The numbers say otherwise.
Gorongosa: 10,000 to 110,000 animals in twenty years. Rwanda: 254 gorillas to 1,063. Namibia: 7,000 elephants to 26,000. Amboseli: 42 lion kills per year to zero. Akagera: zero rhinos to 100. These are not anecdotes. They are measured population data from peer-reviewed surveys. The argument that “conservation doesn’t work in Africa” is empirically false. It works where the architecture exists.
11×
Philanthropic PPP
4.2×
High-value permits
3.7×
Community conservancy
42→0
Lion Guardians
0→100
African Parks
9×
Community conservancy
35×
Philanthropic PPP
+20%
NRT conservancy
005 · The Failure Patterns
Six ways to kill a conservation programme.
Failures are more instructive than successes because they repeat. Every failed programme in African conservation can be traced to one or more of six structural patterns. Revenue capture: the money exists but doesn’t reach communities. Single donor dependency: one exit collapses everything. Cultural imposition: conservation designed for Western donors, not local people. Perverse incentives: killing pays more than protecting. Conflict. Climate. Know the patterns, and you can diagnose any programme on earth in five minutes.
Money enters national budgets and never returns to protected areas or communities. Tourism generates $29.3B; communities see fragments.
CAMPFIRE (district councils took 85%), most national parks across Africa
Programmes collapse when one funder exits. USAID shuttered 2025. COVID halved tourism overnight. Five donors = 54% of all funding.
Namibia conservancies during COVID, Gorongosa (Carr dependency), USAID exit 2025
Conservation designed in Western capitals, imposed on communities. Eviction model. Fortress parks. Fences, boots, guns.
Amboseli evictions (1974), Serengeti Maasai removals, colonial park model
Economic structures that reward killing over protecting. Zero cost to kill a lion. Trophy hunting removes prime breeders.
Trophy hunting quota corruption, SA captive lions, lion bone trade
War destroys conservation overnight. Gorongosa lost 95% of wildlife in civil war. DRC's Virunga under perpetual threat.
Mozambique civil war, DRC M23, Sahel junta belt, CAR
Drought kills prey, prey loss kills predators, predators kill livestock, communities kill predators. Spiral.
Namibia 11-year drought (desert lions 180→57), Kunene 723-animal cull
006 · The Pattern
What the successes share. What the failures lack.
Rwanda charges $1,500 for one hour with the gorillas. Namibia put environmental protection in its constitution. In Amboseli, the warriors who once killed lions now name them. In Gorongosa, six lions became two hundred. At Akagera, rhinos now live in a country that twenty-five years ago was synonymous with genocide. African Parks manages twenty-three national parks across thirteen countries and is rewilding two thousand rhinos. These are not similar programmes. They share almost nothing in method, philosophy, scale, or funding model.
What they share is structural: the people who bear the cost of living with wildlife receive direct, tangible, personal benefit from its survival. In Rwanda, communities get 10% of gorilla revenue. In Namibia, conservancy committees distribute hunting and tourism income to members. In Amboseli, warriors get a $100/month salary. In Gorongosa, 1,800 people have jobs. In African Parks sites, $4.9 million flowed to communities in 2024 alone.
The mechanisms vary. The principle does not. When a Maasai warrior loses three cows to a lion and receives nothing in return, he kills the next lion. When the same warrior receives a salary to protect lions, he intercepts the hunting party. This is not ideology. It is arithmetic.
The failures share an equally consistent pattern: money exists in the system but does not reach the people who live with the animals. CAMPFIRE generated revenue but district councils captured it. Trophy hunting generates 1.8% of tourism revenue; 3% reaches communities. South Africa's captive lion industry exists entirely outside the conservation economy. National park gate fees enter treasury accounts and are never seen again by the communities on the park boundary.
Climate and conflict add complexity but they do not change the underlying logic. Namibia's 11-year drought stressed the conservancy system. COVID halved its revenue. A 723-animal cull fed communities. But the system survived because the governance structure existed. Where governance is absent — in the Sahel, in eastern DRC, in Cabo Delgado — wildlife disappears regardless of how much money is spent.
The most uncomfortable insight: the model that produces the best community-level outcomes — Namibia's conservancies — relies partly on trophy hunting, which generates approximately 50% of conservancy benefits. Ninety-one percent of community members oppose a ban. Western donors frequently condition aid on anti-hunting policies. The communities who live with elephants disagree with the people who fund their protection. This contradiction is not going away.
The second most uncomfortable insight: conservation that works costs almost nothing compared to the value it protects. A Lion Guardian costs $1,200 per year to employ. The lion he protects generates $1 million in tourism revenue over its lifetime. The return on investment is 800:1. But the return is captured by lodges and park fees. The investment comes from donors in the United States and Europe. The economics are inverted. Fix the plumbing and the funding problem largely solves itself.
Most of Africa’s biodiversity depends on lands owned and managed by local communities. These communities are on the front line, and their conservation practices are key to sustaining and restoring healthy ecosystems. Nearly two-thirds of Kenya’s large mammals are found in communal and private lands, not in state-protected areas.
Fred Nelson, CEO of Maliasili
007 · Connected Intelligence
Go deeper.
The systemic view. $29.3B in wildlife tourism GDP, $1.1B in conservation funding, $4B annual shortfall. Six visualizations mapping the architecture that doesn't exist.
Amboseli-Tsavo, Kenya. The cultural guardian model in full detail. 42 lions killed in 2006. Zero in 2024. The warriors' own idea. The act of naming as cultural transformation.
The community conservancy architecture. 86 conservancies. 45.6% of the country. The pioneer stories, the revenue debate, and the stress test: drought + COVID + cull.
Rwanda's high-value permit model. $1,500 per hour. Population 254→1,063. $200M revenue from 0.1% of land. The only great ape that is increasing.
Continental lion economics. $20.5B safari market. 200,000→23,000. Dead vs alive valuations. Why the math works but the plumbing doesn't.
The Barbary lion. What happens when nobody builds the architecture. 100,000 years in North Africa. Extinct by the 1960s. ~90 descendants in zoos.
Sources
NACSO — State of Community Conservation in Namibia (annual reports 1998–2025)
Maliasili (2024) — Community conservancies in Africa: scale, success, and comparative data
African Parks — Annual Report 2024. 23 parks, 13 countries, 20M hectares
Rwanda Development Board — Gorilla permit revenue, tourism statistics 2024
Lion Guardians — Programme monitoring data, efficacy studies (2007–2024)
Gorongosa Restoration Project / BBVA Foundation Award (2024) — 10k→110k+ animals
Indufor / Campaign for Nature / Pew (2025) — State of International 30×30 Funding
Funston, Lindsey et al. (2025) — Range-wide assessment of threats to African lion
Heydinger et al. (2024) — First systematic survey of desert-adapted lions, NW Namibia
Kenya Wildlife Service / WRTI — National Wildlife Census 2025
TRAFFIC / IUCN (2025) — CITES CoP20 African rhino status report
Yale E360 (2024) — How African Communities Are Taking Lead on Protecting Wildlife
Research, visualisation & analysis: Dancing with Lions
© Dancing with Lions 2026