The Cacao
Equation

In 1879, a Ghanaian blacksmith named Tetteh Quarshie smuggled cacao pods from the island of Fernando Po (now Bioko, Equatorial Guinea) and planted them in Mampong, in the Eastern Region of Ghana. The British colonial administration saw the potential and promoted cacao cultivation across the Gold Coast. Within two decades, Ghana was a major exporter. Within a century, West Africa dominated global production. The plant had never grown there before.

Côte d’Ivoire followed under French colonial policy, converting forest to cacao farms through the system of work contracts that functioned, in practice, as forced labour. By 1978, it had overtaken Ghana as the world’s largest producer. It has held that position ever since, producing 42% of global cocoa — roughly 1.8 million metric tons per year from approximately 600,000 smallholder farms.

The equation is stark. West Africa grows 70% of the world’s cocoa. The Netherlands, a country with no cacao trees, is the world’s largest cocoa processor. Europe grinds 43% of global supply and houses the headquarters of Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest chocolate manufacturer. Mars, Mondelēz, Ferrero, Nestlé, and Hershey control the brands. A farmer in Côte d’Ivoire receives roughly 6% of the retail price of a chocolate bar sold in Berlin. The rest accrues to logistics, grinding, manufacturing, branding, and retail — all stages concentrated in the Global North.

Then came 2024. Consecutive poor harvests, driven by erratic weather and the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus devastating ageing plantations, cratered West African output. Futures prices surged over 400% to a record $12,900 per metric ton in January 2025 — the highest in 60 years. Hershey’s confectionery revenue fell 26.6%. Barry Callebaut cut production by nearly 5%. Asian cocoa grinding collapsed 16%. Consumers faced 10–15% price increases. The crisis was structural: decades of underinvestment in replanting, farmer poverty that made alternative crops more attractive, and a production system dependent on ageing trees in a warming climate.

By October 2025, prices had crashed back to ~$4,000 per ton — demand destruction and a partial harvest recovery rebalancing the market. But the structural fragility remains. Over 25% of Côte d’Ivoire’s cacao trees are past their productive peak. An estimated two million children are involved in West African cocoa farming. The Living Income Differential introduced in 2020 — a $400/ton premium meant to support farmers — has largely failed to reach them.

The Olmec ground cacao in stone mortars 3,500 years ago. The Aztecs used it as money. Europe added sugar and machines and made it an industry. Africa grows it. The margins stay north. The equation has not changed. Only the scale.